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Which factors are most uncertain when thinking about North Africa in 2035? Which of these ‘uncertainties’ are likely to have the greatest impact on migration? Asking these questions is a fundamental step in using the scenario methodology to study future migration in North Africa. Because conventional futures studies tend to focus on relative ‘certainties’, they can ignore key migration drivers which are more difficult to predict. The purpose of the scenarios methodology is to expand our imagination about future developments by creating scenarios around key uncertainties. It helps us to identify which factors we should pay most attention to when exploring future migration patterns and trends and appropriate policy responses.

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Policy briefing


International Migration Institute

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