Which factors are most uncertain when thinking about the long-term future of migration? Which of these ‘uncertainties’ are likely to have the greatest impact on migration? Answering these questions is central to using the scenario methodology to study future international migration. After exploring these questions in the context of North Africa, the Global Migration Futures (GMF) team applied them to examine future migration in Europe. Existing research on the future of international migration tends to focus on relative ‘certainties’ such as demographic change, and ignores key migration drivers which are more difficult to predict. The very purpose of the scenario methodology is to expand current thinking about future developments by creating scenarios around key uncertainties. Scenario-building exercises identify which factors deserve the most attention when examining potential future migration patterns and trends and appropriate policy responses.
International Migration Institute