Theorising Mobility Transitions and Social Transformation: Evidence from Five Case Studies

Mobility transition theory pioneered by Zelinsky (1971) and Skeldon (1990) posits that there are patterned regularities in the transformation of mobility patterns in modernising societies, including a general increase and diversification of all forms of internal and international mobility. Several empirical studies have corroborated the overall validity of this theory at the macro level. However, they mostly focus on international migration and are not able to explain significant variations in mobility transitions within and across societies. To understand such variations and the social mechanisms underpinning them, this paper – based on the MADE (Migration as Development) project – compares long-term mobility transformations in five predominantly rural regions of Brazil, Ethiopia, Italy, Morocco, and the Netherlands over the 20th and early-21st centuries. We propose a social transformation and aspiration-capability (‘STAC’) framework to explain how national state building and capitalist expansion have reshaped mobility patterns in strikingly similar ways, notably through a decline in circular and nonmigratory mobility associated with preindustrial modes of production and lifestyles and a concomitant rise in rural-urban, urban-urban, and international migration. However, we also identity significant variations in the duration, direction, and composition of mobility shifts that stem from the specific nature, sequencing, and pace of social transformations across different local, national, and international contexts.