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> Policy Briefing:Exploring the Future of Migration in the Pacific

> Final Report: Using scenarios to explore future migration in the Pacific

First Component

The GMF team completed background research on past, present, and potential future migration drivers and patterns in the Pacific. The primary background document for the project is Richard Bedford and Graeme Hugo’s 2012 report entitled ‘Population Movement in the Pacific: A perspective on future prospects’. In addition to reviewing the academic and policy literature, the team also analysed the available data on socio-economic and demographic drivers of migration in the region, to identify preliminary relative certainties and possible assumptions about the future in advance of working with the project’s Pacific migration experts and stakeholders.

Second Component

Selected migration experts and stakeholders to participate in an online survey about future migration in the Pacific and a scenario-building workshop. Participants were selected to ensure a balance according to gender and geographic and thematic area of expertise, as well as representing a range of sectors, including businesses/private sector employers, governments and policymakers, civil society, and international organizations.

The objective of the survey was to learn what migration experts and stakeholders perceived would be significant factors in facilitating, constraining and shaping Pacific migration patterns in the future. Additionally, the survey enabled the research team to learn what respondents believed to be likely and unlikely scenarios for future migration. This information assisted the research team in structuring the scenario-building workshop, gaining insight into what experts and stakeholders assumed about the future of the region, and helping respondents who also participated in the workshop to compare their before-and-after approaches to futures thinking about Pacific migration.

Third component

Organised a scenario-building workshop in late October 2012 that included approximately 30 migration experts and stakeholders. The workshop was the main form of data collection for the project. It resulted in a series of future migration scenarios and a list of relative certainties and uncertainties about the future, as well as enabled migration experts and stakeholders to challenge their own assumptions about migration and enhance their understanding about Pacific migration processes.

Fourth component

The final phase of the project involved the analysis of the data obtained from the workshop, the refining of the first-generation scenarios, and multiple in person and online feedback rounds with workshop participants. Participants’ feedback was highly valuable to the process of scenario-building for it afforded participants the chance to return to the scenarios, relative certainties, and uncertainties and inform the research team of any further considerations, changed positions, insights gained, or new questions that may have arisen since the scenarios were created.