The Societal Determinants of Climate Risk: A Refugee Corridor Analysis of Hazard Exposure, Vulnerability and Coping Capacity

Research provides ample evidence on how climate hazards interact with migration patterns, but less attention has been given to climate risks faced by displaced populations. This study addresses this gap by analyzing refugees’ climate risks in their origin and destination countries, focusing on global trends and providing a case study of Africa—a region hosting large numbers of refugees and facing severe climate risks. Drawing on the Climate-driven INFORM Risk Index and UNHCR Population Statistics from 2013 to 2022, we study three sub-dimensions of climate risk: hazard exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. We then apply a migration corridor analysis to study how climate risks (low, medium, or high) evolve when refugees move from origin to host countries. Our analysis reveals a global rise in the number of refugees originating from countries with high climate risk and finds that 75% of global refugees remain in high or medium climate risk host countries. In Africa, we find that shorter-distance displacement—particularly to neighboring or regional host countries—reduces exposure to hazards but not overall climate risk, as many refugees remain in countries with high levels of social and institutional vulnerability. Those who travel longer distances, particularly intercontinentally, typically encounter lower climate risks. Our findings underscore the societal determinants of climate risk—social and institutional factors in both sending and receiving nations overshadow hazard exposure in determining climate risk—and highlight the possibility of ‘societal traps’ where entrenched socio-political vulnerability and limited institutional capacity at destination reproduce persistent high-risk environments.