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The team working on IMI's Global Migration Futures project have produced a briefing looking at which factors are most uncertain when thinking about the long-term future of migration, and which of these ‘uncertainties’ are likely to have the greatest impact on migration

After exploring these issues in the context of North Africa, the Global Migration Futures team applied them to examine future migration in Europe.

Existing research on the future of international migration tends to focus on relative ‘certainties’ such as demographic change, and ignores key migration drivers which are more difficult to predict.

The purpose of the scenario methodology used by the project is to expand current thinking about future developments by creating scenarios around key uncertainties. Scenario-building exercises identify which factors deserve the most attention when examining potential future migration patterns and trends and appropriate policy responses.

Download IMI Policy Briefing 8

Go to the IMI Policy Briefings page

Go to the Global Migration Futures page